The Four Bets
The four falsifiable claims the Hundred-Year Repair timeline depends on: fusion or fission/solar scaling, DAC cost decline, global coordination, and the fuel rent dividend flowing to removal.
The four falsifiable claims on which the High-Energy Repair timeline depends. Bet 1: fusion delivers, or fission and solar scale enough to substitute. Bet 2: direct air capture costs fall dramatically. Bet 3: global coordination among major emitters holds. Bet 4: the fuel rent dividend flows to removal. If any one bet fails, the timeline slips. If three of four hold, the program still works more slowly. The bets are how the argument is falsified.
First introduced in: Chapter 1; Chapter 4